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Reliever Usage Pattern, 1999-2002 (June 24, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 4:22 p.m.,
July 11, 2003
(#33) -
Phil Birnbaum(e-mail)
Tom,
This is very interesting stuff ... thanks!
A couple of thoughts:
1. In "Moneyball", Billy Beane (or maybe Depodesta) is quoted as saying it's good to make the starter throw a lot of pitches, so you get into the bullpen earlier. This is supposed to be a good thing because relief pitchers are generally not as good as starters. But if managers use better relievers when the game is tied, that strategy may no longer make sense, since the starter would be replaced by a mediocre reliever only when the game was already decided. This data has the potential to help us find that out.
2. Suppose the average team ERA is 4.5. That tells us something. But it would also be good to know what the average team ERA is *weighted by importance*. Some teams may use bad pitchers when the game is 15-1, but then their pitching staffs aren't as bad as they seem, because who cares how bad your reliever is when it's 15-1? Some picthing staffs may therefore look worse (or better) than they actually are.
Again, nice work. If I have some time, I might try a couple of these studies someday.
Phil